Tools - ARV Estimator

ARV Estimator

Work from real comparable sales toward a grounded after-repair value. Enter your subject property and recent nearby sales, and watch the price-per-square-foot analysis, the ARV range, and the confidence readout update live.

Educational estimate only. This tool is not an appraisal, an offer, or an underwriting decision, and its confidence bands are illustrative - not 1st Private Capital lending criteria.

01 - The Estimator

Subject in. Comps in. Range out.

Step 1 - Your Subject Property

Used only to label your saved and downloaded results. It is not looked up or sent anywhere.

Step 2 - Comparable Sales (2 to 8)

Automatic comparable-sales lookup is coming. For now, enter recent nearby sales - your agent, wholesaler, or public records are good sources.

Comp 01 -
Comp 02 -
Comp 03 -
Beds, baths, condition, distance, and recency are recorded for your report and your judgment - only square footage adjusts the math.
Live Results
Comps in the set 0
Median price per sqft -
Price-per-sqft range -
Subject square footage -
Central ARV estimate (median-based) -
Estimated ARV range -

Enter your subject's square footage and at least two comps (sale price and square footage) to see the estimated ARV range.

Confidence labels are illustrative reference points driven by comp count and price-per-sqft spread - they are not an appraisal standard or 1st Private Capital underwriting criteria. This tool adjusts for square footage only; walk the comps for everything else.

Send to 1st Private Capital

Educational estimate only. This tool is not an appraisal, an offer, a quote, or an underwriting decision - it is arithmetic on the comparable sales you enter. To send results to 1st Private Capital, copy or download them and paste the summary into the Exit strategy field on the Request a Term Sheet form - the form does not import them automatically yet.

02 - How the Math Works

No black box. Here is every formula.

The whole calculation runs in your browser. Nothing you type is sent anywhere.

01
Price per square foot

comp sale price / comp square footage

Computed for every comp with both numbers entered. This is the common currency that lets different-sized houses be compared.

02
Sqft-adjusted value

comp $/sqft x subject square footage

What the subject would have sold for at that comp's price per square foot. Each comp produces one adjusted value.

03
Central ARV estimate

median of the sqft-adjusted values

The median resists a single outlier comp better than an average does - one odd sale moves it less.

04
Estimated ARV range

lowest to highest adjusted value; with 5+ comps the single highest and lowest are trimmed first

With enough comps, the trim drops the most extreme sale at each end so the range describes the market rather than its outliers.

05
Confidence readout (illustrative)

spread = (max $/sqft - min $/sqft) / median $/sqft; 5+ comps and spread <= 15% reads stronger, 3+ comps and spread <= 30% reads moderate, anything else reads low

More comps and a tighter spread mean the comps agree with each other. These labels are illustrative reference points, not an appraisal standard.

06
What is not adjusted

beds, baths, condition, distance, months since sale: recorded, not modeled

An honest tool does not pretend to price a bathroom. These fields travel with your report so you - and anyone you share it with - can judge how comparable the comps really are.

03 - Beyond the Math

Factors that may increase or reduce value.

Square footage arithmetic is the skeleton of an ARV. These are the judgment calls that put weight on it - none of them are computed by this tool, and all of them matter.

Location Within the Market
Same zip, different street

A busy road, a school boundary, or a view can separate two comps that look identical on paper. Comps from the subject's own micro-area beat comps from across the zip code.

Condition Delta
Compare renovated to renovated

If your comps sold dated and your subject will be fully renovated, the raw $/sqft understates your ARV - and the reverse overstates it. The condition fields exist so you can see this mismatch.

Functional Layout
Square feet are not equal

A choppy floor plan, a walk-through bedroom, or a converted garage counts the same in sqft math but not in buyers' offers. Layout problems that survive the renovation drag on value.

Lot
The land under the house

Lot size, usability, parking, and outdoor space move value in ways per-square-foot math never sees - especially where land is the scarce ingredient.

Over-Improvement Risk
The ceiling is the neighborhood

A renovation budget can buy finishes the street will not pay for. When the subject would be the most expensive house on the block, the top of the comp range is a warning, not a target.

Market Direction
Comps are the past; ARV is the future

Every comp is a photograph of a market that has already moved. In a shifting market, recent months-old sales can overstate or understate what your exit will actually bring.

A grounded ARV is one of the seven items 1st Private Capital asks for on every deal. See the Hard Money page.

ARV Penciled?

Paste your results into the request form and get real terms on the real deal.

Request a Term Sheet