Tools - Stress Test

Exit Strategy Stress Test

Every deal looks good in the base case. This tool pressures your assumptions - sale price, budget, timeline, carrying costs - and shows you the deal that is left.

Educational estimate only. This tool is not an offer, quote, or underwriting decision, and its thresholds are illustrative - not 1st Private Capital lending criteria.

01 - The Stress Test

Base case in. Pressure on.

Step 1 - Your Base Case

Blank counts as $0.

Blank counts as 0.

Debt service, taxes, insurance, utilities. Blank counts as $0.

Only if a refinance is part of the exit.

Step 2 - Apply the Stress
-10%
-0%

Both price cuts apply to the same expected ARV / sale price figure and compound. Use one or both.

+15%
+3 mo
+10%
-10%

Only matters if you entered expected refinance proceeds.

Step 3 - Base Case vs Stressed Case
Measure Base Stressed
Total project cost - -
Sale proceeds (ARV / sale price) - -
Gross profit / loss on sale exit - -
Margin on sale - -
Refi coverage (proceeds / project cost) - -
Waiting for Numbers

Enter at least a purchase price and an expected ARV or sale price to run the stress test.

The margin lines used in the readout (10% thin, negative under water) are illustrative reference points for reading the result - not 1st Private Capital underwriting thresholds. Actual structures depend on the full transaction.

Send to 1st Private Capital

Educational estimate only. Nothing on this page is an offer, quote, rate indication, or underwriting decision. To send results to 1st Private Capital, copy or download them and paste the summary into the Exit strategy field on the Request a Term Sheet form - the form does not import them automatically yet.

02 - How the Math Works

No black box. Here is every formula.

The whole calculation runs in your browser. Nothing you type is sent anywhere.

01
Total project cost

purchase price + renovation budget + (hold months x monthly carrying cost)

The all-in cost of getting to the exit.

02
Stressed project cost

purchase + renovation x (1 + reno stress) + (hold + extra months) x carry x (1 + financing stress)

The same cost with your budget overrun, longer timeline, and higher monthly costs applied.

03
Stressed sale proceeds

expected ARV/sale x (1 - sale price cut) x (1 - ARV cut)

Both price cuts apply to the same figure and compound - use one or both.

04
Gross profit and margin

profit = sale proceeds - project cost; margin = profit / sale proceeds

Computed for the base case and the stressed case, side by side. Selling costs are not modeled - add them to carrying costs if you want them included.

05
Refi coverage

refinance proceeds / total project cost (stressed: proceeds x (1 - refi cut) / stressed cost)

If a refinance is the exit, coverage of 100% or more means projected proceeds repay the full project cost.

03 - Why Stress a Deal

The stressed case is the honest case.

Price
Markets move during a project

The sale price that pencils today is not guaranteed at the exit. A deal that survives a price haircut is a deal, not a bet.

Budget + Time
Renovations run long and over

Extra months mean extra carrying cost on top of the overrun itself - the two stresses compound, which is exactly what this tool shows.

The Exit
A defined way out, tested

Every strong bridge deal has a clear exit - a sale or a refinance. Stressing the exit before you commit is how you find out if it is actually clear.

The exit strategy is one of the seven items 1st Private Capital asks for on every deal. See the Hard Money page.

Deal Holds Up?

Paste your results into the request form and get real terms on the real deal.

Request a Term Sheet